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How Does Skill Change Over Time?
Player skill can vary over time for a variety of reasons. This might be because someone is
experimenting with a new loadout, they haven’t played recently, or they are simply tired or
distracted. It is therefore important that a player’s skill value is updated on an ongoing basis,
and that it can be updated and reach equilibrium quickly. Overcorrection can lead to large
fluctuations in the skill of players that someone is matched with and against and can result
in unfair matches. However, when a player’s abilities are stable, it is equally important that
skill calculations find the stable midpoint quickly. These two goals, stability and rapid
correction, are largely at odds. A balance must be found between the stability and flexibility
that best suits each core multiplayer game mode in Call of Duty.
However, even if skill could be tracked perfectly and all matches were made with completely
equal opponents, many players will still experience significant loss or win streaks. For
instance, in any string of five perfectly equal games, the equivalent of a binomial distribution
of a coin flipped five times, about 3% of players will experience a five-game loss streak, and
about 3% will experience a five-game win streak.
Why Even Track Skill?
One of the core design principles of Call of Duty is Player First. Players of all levels should
have a fun and competitive experience with the game. Team balance is the first and most
important reason to track skill. If we don’t know how we expect players to perform in a
match, then we can’t provide a balanced in-match experience for players. This results in
blowouts, which we know are not fun for players on the losing end. We have found that
balancing skill against other matchmaking factors quantifiably increases the extent to which
most players play and enjoy Call of Duty. When skill is utilized in matchmaking, 80-90% of
players experience better end-of-match placement, stick with the game longer and quit
matches less frequently.
All these factors strongly encourage the long-term health of the Call of Duty player base,
helping the title avoid the feedback loop of low-to-average skill players continually leaving
the game as the average skill of the population rises. By avoiding this feedback mechanism,
the remaining 10-20% of the player population benefits. If low skill players engage with our
titles less, then higher and higher skilled players become the new low skill players (relatively
speaking). As a result, they then experience the negative outcomes of being the lowest skilled
players in the core multiplayer population, likely resulting in those players then returning at
reduced rates. This ultimately becomes a feedback loop, likely resulting in a player
population of only the best of the best, and a very unwelcoming experience for any new